We present an algorithm which is expected to realise Bayes optimal predictions in large feed-forward networks. It is based on mean field methods developed within statistical mechanics of disordered sys(cid:173) tems. We give a derivation for the single layer perceptron and show that the algorithm also provides a leave-one-out cross-validation test of the predictions.

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of a inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the model using a latent marked Poisson process and P\'olya--Gamma random variables we obtain a representation of the likelihood which is conjugate to the GP prior. We approximate the posterior using a free--form mean field approximation together with the framework of sparse GPs. Furthermore, as alternative approximation we suggest a sparse Laplace approximation of the posterior, for which an efficient expectation--maximisation algorithm is derived to find the posterior's mode. Results of both algorithms compare well with exact inference obtained by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler and standard variational Gauss approach, while being one order of magnitude faster.

The mean field algorithm is a widely used approximate inference algorithm for graphical models whose exact inference is intractable. In each iteration of mean field, the approximate marginals for each variable are updated by getting information from the neighbors. This process can be equivalently converted into a feedforward network, with each layer representing one iteration of mean field and with tied weights on all layers. This conversion enables a few natural extensions, e.g. untying the weights in the network. In this paper, we study these mean field networks (MFNs), and use them as inference tools as well as discriminative models. Preliminary experiment results show that MFNs can learn to do inference very efficiently and perform significantly better than mean field as discriminative models.

Using statistical mechanics results, I calculate learning curves (average generalization error) for Gaussian processes (GPs) and Bayesian neural networks (NNs) used for regression. Applying the results to learning a teacher defined by a two-layer network, I can directly compare GP and Bayesian NN learning.

Using statistical mechanics results, I calculate learning curves (average generalization error) for Gaussian processes (GPs) and Bayesian neural networks (NNs) used for regression. Applying the results to learning a teacher defined by a two-layer network, I can directly compare GP and Bayesian NN learning.

Using statistical mechanics results, I calculate learning curves (average generalization error) for Gaussian processes (GPs) and Bayesian neural networks (NNs) used for regression. Applying the results to learning a teacher defined by a two-layer network, I can directly compare GP and Bayesian NN learning.

In the Bayes approach to statistical inference [Berger, 1985] one assumes that the prior uncertainty about parameters of an unknown data generating mechanism can be encoded in a probability distribution, the so called prior. Using the prior and the likelihood of the data given the parameters, the posterior distribution of the parameters can be derived from Bayes rule. From this posterior, various estimates for functions ofthe parameter, like predictions about unseen data, can be calculated. However, in general, those predictions cannot be realised by specific parameter values, but only by an ensemble average over parameters according to the posterior probability. Hence, exact implementations of Bayes method for neural networks require averages over network parameters which in general can be performed by time consuming 226 M. Opper and O. Winther Monte Carlo procedures.

In the Bayes approach to statistical inference [Berger, 1985] one assumes that the prior uncertainty about parameters of an unknown data generating mechanism can be encoded in a probability distribution, the so called prior. Using the prior and the likelihood of the data given the parameters, the posterior distribution of the parameters can be derived from Bayes rule. From this posterior, various estimates for functions ofthe parameter, like predictions about unseen data, can be calculated. However, in general, those predictions cannot be realised by specific parameter values, but only by an ensemble average over parameters according to the posterior probability. Hence, exact implementations of Bayes method for neural networks require averages over network parameters which in general can be performed by time consuming 226 M. Opper and O. Winther Monte Carlo procedures.

In the Bayes approach to statistical inference [Berger, 1985] one assumes that the prior uncertainty about parameters of an unknown data generating mechanism can be encoded in a probability distribution, the so called prior. Using the prior and the likelihood of the data given the parameters, the posterior distribution of the parameters can be derived from Bayes rule. From this posterior, various estimates for functions ofthe parameter, like predictions about unseen data, can be calculated. However, in general, those predictions cannot be realised by specific parameter values, but only by an ensemble average over parameters according to the posterior probability. Hence,exact implementations of Bayes method for neural networks require averages over network parameters which in general can be performed by time consuming 226 M.Opper and O. Winther Monte Carlo procedures.